Monday, April 30, 2012

Defaulted in the U.S.

U.S. national debt reached May 16 ceiling - $ 14.3 trillion. Congress until August 2 to make a decision about raising the debt ceiling, otherwise the country threatens to default. However, the administration and Congress are bogged down in disputes over the decision. What differences are fraught with the U.S. for the global economy, elucidated News. Ru.
Another May 16, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has notified Congress that the national debt the country has reached the statutory level. The minister said he had to use ... Geithner stressed that these measures will allow the U.S. to avoid default until August 2. What will happen next - it depends on Congress.
That Congress passed a law on the acceptable level of public debt of the country. Previously, similar laws have taken without unnecessary delay and disputes, it happened in the history of the U.S. 74 times. But this time the established mechanism has failed. The administration of U.S. President Barack Obama is mired in disputes with the Republican majority in Congress.

As a condition for raising the debt ceiling Republicans require a drastic reduction of budget expenditures, and are dead set against raising taxes. Obama proposes reducing state spending by about $ 4 trillion over the next ten years and increase the tax burden on American companies and the most wealthy of the population.
At a regular meeting of the Administration and Congress, June 11, Obama said that Democrats would not support measures to reduce budget expenditures, if these measures do not imply the abolition of tax breaks for the rich. Obama confirmed that he was ready to make concessions in reducing spending on social programs.

In an interview on CBS last Sunday Geithner noted that an alternative debt ceiling increase to 2 August, Congress does not. Republicans and Democrats are well aware that the agreement should be reached, the Minister said.
The decision of the Congress is essential for the global economy. In particular, the head of the International Monetary Fund ( IMF), Christine Lagarde has already said that if the U.S. will not increase the debt ceiling, it will lead ... Interest rates on loans will rise sharply and the stock markets collapse, says Lagarde. The global economy is waiting for a new crisis.

In turn, the representative of the Democrats in the Congressional Budget Office, Chris Van Hollen said that the need to maintain confidence in the U.S. and the country's ability to meet its debt obligations. ...

... You can issue bonds for another $ 2-4 trillion and spend a year as the U.S. once again reach a new debt ceiling. But the question is that even if a limit raise, then who will buy these new bonds in just one year? . That is the point. The world simply does not have enough money, and buyers who wish to become owners of America's ... Ru analyst ...

It is understood by the financial authorities of all economically developed countries. ... U.S. for the full program using a monopoly on printing money ...
But to print dollars and then you can not issue bonds. The limit of U.S. government debt ran into the limit of the purchasing power of the rest of the world.

... The key is that the rate of accumulation, which is precisely the source of financing debt is not growing in the world as fast as the growing U.S. debt. Even at the expense of developing countries and the accumulation of savings in the world will grow by 5% per year, but America's debt during the same time increase at current growth rates of 14%. That is, the debt has become so ...

... All continue to follow the path of increasing public and private debt. The load is getting heavier, and all these difficulties will be felt at the latest by 2013, ... In his view, global economic growth may slow in the second half of the year because of ...

Roubini thinks it possible ... ... There is a risk that the market for some time, as happened in Europe, wake up and start raising rates, which will make recovery impossible, ...

In Greece, the amount of debt exceeds 140 % of GDP. Too bad it's very expensive debt, the value of his service up to 20 % per annum. It is the duty of Japan exceeds 200 % of GDP, the debt of Italy - 120 % of GDP, the analyst FG ... Other developed and developing countries are comparable to the size of debt.
Why do these countries continue to buy U.S. debt? . Too many problems have accumulated in the world, and their solution requires local investment. Money is needed to solve the internal problems in those countries that used to buy U.S. bonds. The financial situation in the world has changed completely, says expert.

... But it only postpones the problem. Better a terrible end than terror without end. In this regard, the Bank of Russia should seriously think about investing in government bonds U.S. over what is thought China and other countries ...

The decision of the U.S. national debt should be taken to the July 20-25, otherwise the authorities might not have time to carry it through Congress. Therefore, there is a chance for a default, although it looks very small, said Vesti. Ru chief economist at SG ...

... U.S. national debt this year will be over 100% of GDP. If someone believes that America - not Greece, and somehow get out, you should look at Italy. It was said the same thing, but today the Italian bond yields peaked in 1997. Similarly, investors will run away from U.S. bonds, when they realize that the United States have exhausted the possibility of normal maintenance of its sovereign debt, ...

On the other hand, to cut the budget deficit the U.S. administration can not, because only through the expenditure of the budget alive the country's economy: 10-12% of disposable income of Americans in 2010 arose due to expenditure from the Treasury.
... And all this is inevitable. Will it happen this year, in 2012 or 2013, but inevitably will sequester. This means that the global economy uhnet a new Great Depression. Buyers of U.S. bonds less. Hence, the time before the default is not much ...