Any educated audience is already under the name of the film, created by NTV channel TV men, caught a parallel with the well-known cinematic masterpiece by Francis Ford Coppola's ... And the content was appropriate. The political leader of Belarus, which in the eyes of many Russians, traditionally considered a brotherly nation, now appeared on television as a tyrant and a criminal, not just the overwhelming democratic opposition, but even liquidating their political opponents with the help of professional killers from the security services. In the end, to observe the film viewer should appear and make an unambiguous conclusion that stretch Lukashenko stay in office since 1994. is the result of gross violation of democratic norms.
The same conclusion must reach the audience, and who have looked the other revelatory film about Lukashenka, the same evening featured an English-language television channel Russia Today, which is a propaganda tool of the Kremlin and created in order to create a positive image of Russia in the West.
Curiously, the very next day ( July 5) on the First Channel of Russian television was to contrast film about the President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev, who heads his country, even longer than Lukashenko and calmly adjusts for this democratic norms. However, Nazarbayev has been shown extremely positive, as a wise man, a worthy leader and a wonderful family man.
Undoubtedly, the simultaneous occurrence of these three films, and even before the summit, held in Astana, Kazakhstan, can not be accidental. If we use the story of the famous novel by Robert Louis Stevenson's ... Although in our case, it can go on only in the figurative sense, the Kremlin seems to have condemned the Belarusian president as a politician with whom Moscow could deal.
However, in order to clarify the meaning of this history, we must first focus on the issue of Customs Union.
Customs union or customs anshlyuz.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union that took place in 1991. , Russia tried in one form or another to restore the co-operation post-Soviet states. At first this was created by the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States). Although many citizens included in the CIS countries initially thought that the Commonwealth, to some extent replaced the Soviet Union, in fact it was a profanation of the full. The Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania ) did not include it, preferring to take a course on EU membership, while others could be found among themselves openly hostile relations - for example, Armenia and Azerbaijan or Russia against Georgia, which after the war in August 2008. formally withdrew from CIS.
Another attempt to restore the post-Soviet cooperation was the formation of the Union State of Russia and Belarus. In reality, a single state has not been established, but Lukashenko has long used the declaration of the intention to create in order to receive from Russia some economic preferences.
In contrast to the CIS and the Union State Customs Union - is quite real and quite useful form. Removal of tariff barriers between the three states can promote competition and strengthen the market economy. Signing the agreement in Astana should be regarded as the first real success of economic integration achieved over the past two decades.
However, the significance of the Customs Union, we should not overestimate. It is very characteristic that the political leaders and official media said a lot of the Customs Union, but in society and independent media, he is not the primary topic of discussion. In fact there are at least two reasons.
First - too unequal economic weight of the participants. Russia's GDP by more than 12 times the GDP of Kazakhstan and more than 25 times the GDP of Belarus. Even Russia by population is almost 10 times larger than in Kazakhstan and more than 15 times larger than in Belarus. Despite the theoretical importance of the Customs Union, in a practical sense, little has changed ( at least for Russia). Rather, you can not talk about the merger of markets in different countries, and that the Russian market was enlarged several.
The formation of the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan almost no way resembles the formation of the European Economic Community, which lay at the heart of the current EU. Rather, the Customs Union can be likened to the Customs Union, which in the 30s of the XIX century Prussia was formed in German lands. One large state introduced into the orbit of the economic impact of a number of small. In Germany, when there was talk about custom anshlyuze. And this term in a sense could be applied today to Russia's relations with Kazakhstan and Belarus ( the more so in the Russian language the word ...
However, the second reason why the value of the customs union should not be overestimated, just shows us that it is impossible to fully identify all happening anshlyuzom. Political leaders and national elites in Kazakhstan and Belarus are ready to receive economic benefits from the association, but all the forces opposed to the subordination of his State of Russia. Neither of which the revival of Russian and Soviet empires in this regard can not speak. In particular, the Kremlin's political opposition to Lukashenko has now become an extremely sharp. That explains the political scandal which arose in connection with a demonstration of the movie ...
naughty dad.
Conflicts between the Kremlin and the Belarusian authorities in recent years appear with increasing frequency. Their reason is that Russia is a long time is actually subsidizing the Belarusian economy, but because the Russian government would like to have some benefits from this.
What benefits specifically, it is difficult to judge. Political bargaining between Russia and Belarus had not conducted a public. Nevertheless, we can assume that the potential ...
The first category - service policy. On the one hand, Belarus is not a truly influential state and can not provide strong support for Russia on important issues. On the other hand, once in a burst of candor Lukashenko said that he is required formal recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states. Russia is clearly embarrass the recognition of these two republics. For the Kremlin followed only Venezuela, Nicaragua and Nauru. Such supporters of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, only emphasized the fact that Moscow has gone against the opinion of the world. In this situation, even though support for several states would be important for the Kremlin. However, Lukashenko refrained from recognizing.
We do not know whether Moscow demanded from him a confession, or the Belarusian president has invented all this to show the West its resistance against the imperial ambitions of the Kremlin. But we may well assume that Moscow, in principle, would like for their money have a state that does the will of the Kremlin's obedient in such delicate matters.
The second category - economic services. The Russian leadership, no doubt, would be beneficial to the state or dependent on a large Russian companies are actively involved in the privatization of property of the former Soviet Union. In particular, Belarus is of interest because the pass through its territory of gas and oil pipelines leading to Western countries. And also because, in Belarus there are remaining Soviet-era refineries. However, ideal conditions for Russia's participation in the privatization of Lukashenko does not create. Although Gazprom already owns 50% of Beltransgaz, the Russian leadership probably would like to increase its influence.
Lukashenko is constantly engaged in political maneuvering. Sometimes he pretends to go toward the Kremlin, but in fact limited to a minimum and only forced concessions. The Belarusian president does not want to share his power with the rulers in Moscow.
It seems come, finally, when the Kremlin is tired of maneuvering. Recently Gazprom sharply reduced the supply of gas to Belarus, demanding that Lukashenko paid off its debts. Now, with the help of TV movies was struck not by Belarus in general and personally by the president of this country. Judging by the force of this blow, Moscow wants to either put the full Lukashenko on his knees, or even change it to the presidency. Recall that the next presidential election to be held in Belarus in the coming year.
How much harder position Lukashenko?.
On the one hand, he, no doubt, is trapped in a corner. He still can not pay for fuel, because the Belarusian economy is in poor condition. Moscow just before the elections could once again turn off the gas and thereby undermine the popularity of the Old Man of the people. And in the West, the ...
On the other hand, it is not clear how the change can happen Lukashenko if he did not rise to his knees in front of Moscow. In the Ukrainian case, the Kremlin, the quarrel with the former president, Viktor Yushchenko, who supported the political opposition in the face of Viktor Yanukovich, but in Belarus due to the authoritarian rule of Lukashenka strong opposition, which enjoys the support of much of the population, simply does not exist.
Probably throw Lukashenko, quarrel with the world except the Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez, can indeed be. But how to get in Belarus a stable democratic regime with the backing of the people, but at the same time ready to cooperate with the East and the West. Of course, Belarus - Kyrgyzstan is not, yet recent events that have occurred in the Central Asian republic, suggest that the care of an authoritarian leader, coupled with the lack of hard power can create serious problems.
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